Crap conditions all over the east, so I'm taking it easy today. Woodbine card looks promising, though, and it should be a gorgeous day in Toronto.
Race 1 - #3 Quiet Intent (2-1) Logical favorite. No speed in this race, so the pace should be his to dictate. Only needs to hold off the #1 in the stretch.
Race 2 - #2 Stayhonor Goodside (9-2) Wide open. Landing on Casse/Civaci because they have such great results on synth sprints, but a case can be made for every horse in the race.
Race 3 - #3 Live Lucky (4-5) Here's your single. The colt looks like a beast. Wasn't even asked in his stakes-winning wire-to-wire performance 30 days ago. Shows up with Lasix today - why?
Race 4 - #5 Fanore (3-1) So many red flags here, but ultimately I think the drop in class to first-time claiming plus the switch to the bug will be the difference. I'll be watching the tote, though.
Race 5 - #7 Just Follow Me (9-2) A rematch of the George Bay and although it looks like a 2-horse race (4&5), this #7 could have something to say. She had a tough trip in the GB but gets a rider upgrade (IMO) to Emma-Jayne for today's rematch. The extra furlong should only help.
Race 6 - #9 Notorious Gangster (12-1) Gets blinkers and the talented apprentice for debut. I expect him to go straight for the lead. Josie Carroll has won 17 of last 68 MSW debuts (25%), so you know the colt will be ready. Price will be square as the Casse and Cox horses will take a lot of pounding. There's also the "joe b" angle here as Carroll has another horse running at much lower odds.
Race 7 - #7 Palio (10-1) In his last three turf tries at this distance he's won and twice lost by a neck. The thing is, these races are spread out among among 7 other races at assorted distance/surfaces where the results have been less than spectacular. Thus, we get the inflated morning line. I feel like this level, surface, and distance is where he's meant to race. Could be some real value here.
Race 8 - #5 South Bend (3-1) Has only tried the synthetic twice in his 34 race career, but both were stellar efforts. He'll be closing like a freight train as there's going to be plenty of pace to run into. Might not get there but it will be fun to watch and I do trust Civaci to time his run correctly.
Race 9 - #6 Tour The City (4-1) I do love to bet the closers. Has only thrown in one clunker in his 9-race career. I like that he's shown ability on both AW and grass and at multiple distances. The race two back was impressive, but Husbands began his run too soon. He won't make that mistake today.
Race 10 - #8 Quiet Knight (6-1) Grandson of my favorite horse of all time, the legendary Sunday Silence. Attard stretches him out after a pair of show finishes in sprints. This is about a 20% angle for the trainer.
Good luck today if you're playing.
Race 1 - #3 Quiet Intent (2-1) Logical favorite. No speed in this race, so the pace should be his to dictate. Only needs to hold off the #1 in the stretch.
Race 2 - #2 Stayhonor Goodside (9-2) Wide open. Landing on Casse/Civaci because they have such great results on synth sprints, but a case can be made for every horse in the race.
Race 3 - #3 Live Lucky (4-5) Here's your single. The colt looks like a beast. Wasn't even asked in his stakes-winning wire-to-wire performance 30 days ago. Shows up with Lasix today - why?
Race 4 - #5 Fanore (3-1) So many red flags here, but ultimately I think the drop in class to first-time claiming plus the switch to the bug will be the difference. I'll be watching the tote, though.
Race 5 - #7 Just Follow Me (9-2) A rematch of the George Bay and although it looks like a 2-horse race (4&5), this #7 could have something to say. She had a tough trip in the GB but gets a rider upgrade (IMO) to Emma-Jayne for today's rematch. The extra furlong should only help.
Race 6 - #9 Notorious Gangster (12-1) Gets blinkers and the talented apprentice for debut. I expect him to go straight for the lead. Josie Carroll has won 17 of last 68 MSW debuts (25%), so you know the colt will be ready. Price will be square as the Casse and Cox horses will take a lot of pounding. There's also the "joe b" angle here as Carroll has another horse running at much lower odds.
Race 7 - #7 Palio (10-1) In his last three turf tries at this distance he's won and twice lost by a neck. The thing is, these races are spread out among among 7 other races at assorted distance/surfaces where the results have been less than spectacular. Thus, we get the inflated morning line. I feel like this level, surface, and distance is where he's meant to race. Could be some real value here.
Race 8 - #5 South Bend (3-1) Has only tried the synthetic twice in his 34 race career, but both were stellar efforts. He'll be closing like a freight train as there's going to be plenty of pace to run into. Might not get there but it will be fun to watch and I do trust Civaci to time his run correctly.
Race 9 - #6 Tour The City (4-1) I do love to bet the closers. Has only thrown in one clunker in his 9-race career. I like that he's shown ability on both AW and grass and at multiple distances. The race two back was impressive, but Husbands began his run too soon. He won't make that mistake today.
Race 10 - #8 Quiet Knight (6-1) Grandson of my favorite horse of all time, the legendary Sunday Silence. Attard stretches him out after a pair of show finishes in sprints. This is about a 20% angle for the trainer.
Good luck today if you're playing.
